Caught in the crossfire: how great-power rivalry shapes clean energy in developing nations

Chinese scientists and policy researchers have long understood that technological progress does not occur in a vacuum. A forthcoming study by Qianying Chen, published in Energy Policy, now provides a rigorous analytical lens on an increasingly urgent question: how do U.S.-China tensions affect the energy transition in third countries? The paper, titled “Collateral impact: U.S.-China tensions and energy transition in third countries,” moves beyond bilateral trade disputes to examine the spillover effects on nations caught between the world’s two largest economies.

The research arrives at a moment when the global clean-energy supply chain—from solar panels to rare-earth processing—is deeply entwined with Chinese manufacturing capacity and American policy directives. Chinese scientists have found that the strategic decoupling between these powers creates uncertainty that can delay or derail renewable energy projects in developing nations, which often rely on Chinese technology exports and American financial mechanisms simultaneously. The study’s core contribution lies in quantifying these indirect disruptions, revealing that the collateral damage of great-power competition may be most acutely felt in precisely those regions most in need of affordable and reliable clean energy.

For a global professional audience, the significance is twofold. First, it challenges the conventional narrative that bilateral tensions only affect the direct protagonists. Second, it underscores the growing importance of political risk analysis in energy-sector investment decisions. As China continues to position itself as a leading supplier of solar, wind, and battery technologies, the stability of international relations becomes a critical variable in the calculus of decarbonisation. The research from Chen urges policymakers and investors alike to consider not just the technological feasibility of the energy transition, but the geopolitical architecture that enables—or impedes—it.

Why it matters:
For investors and energy strategists, the study makes plain that clean-energy project viability in emerging markets is increasingly hostage to U.S.-China dynamics, demanding more sophisticated risk assessment that accounts for geopolitical friction as a core variable.

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